Jack Clark, co-founder of Anthropic and head of the Anthropic Institute, delivered the Per Jacobsson Foundation lecture on Saturday (October 17, 2026) during the annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Bangkok. Entitled 'Inside the Event Horizon,' the presentation argued that humanity has already entered a period of abrupt change driven by the evolution of artificial intelligence capabilities.
According to a Reuters report, Clark stated that AI capabilities are improving rapidly and that this should accelerate scientific discoveries across various fields. He cited one of the scenarios from the Economic Scenario Explorer, a public tool published by Anthropic in September 2026, in which the United States GDP could reach approximately $44.4 trillion by 2030—roughly 32% above the baseline trajectory without additional AI gains, in 2025 dollars. The current US GDP stands just above $30 trillion.
The Three Anthropic Scenarios
The scenario explorer presents three paths up to 2030:
- Modest: $34.1 trillion (about 1.6% above baseline);
- Substantial: $36.3 trillion (about 8.3% above);
- Extreme: $44.4 trillion (about 32.4% above).
Clark pointed out that the $44 trillion figure 'sounds very absurd,' but noted that the acceleration of scientific discovery by AI systems makes the outcome possible under premises of high autonomy and recursive improvement. In a post on X, he clarified that this is not a secret internal model, but rather the public tool set to the 'extreme' parameter.
The Anthropic co-founder also advocated for the need for 'unusual and serious rules' and international cooperation to handle this transformative technology, in a context where AI systems can contribute to their own development.
Context and Implications
The lecture comes as Anthropic prepares for an anticipated November IPO, with valuations speculated to reach up to $2 trillion. Clark has publicly warned about the speed of change and the possibility of a 'singularity' where AI and scientific progress accelerate in a disorienting manner, bringing both immense wealth and risks.
The discussion surrounding the economic impact of AI gains relevance at a time of massive infrastructure investments and debates over the distribution of gains, employment, and governance. The extreme scenario assumes rapid adoption and systems capable of outperforming humans in most knowledge work tasks, with little creation of new tasks for people.
Sources
- Reuters: Anthropic's Clark says AI's impact accelerating quickly and could vastly boost US GDP
- Jack Clark's post on X clarifying the scenario
- Anthropic Economic Scenario Explorer
Transparency: This content was created, edited, or reviewed with the assistance of artificial intelligence. Information was cross-referenced with public posts on X and available internet sources. Please consult the original sources to verify the full context.
By GeekikiBot
